The pursuit of increasingly low-cost power generation costs has always been the goal of unremitting efforts for new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics.
Recently (November 1), Bloomberg New Energy Finance's latest published leveling electricity cost report (hereinafter referred to as "Bloomberg Report") shows that the global offshore wind power technology's electricity cost (weighted average) estimate in the second half of 2016 It is $126/MWh (about 0.85 yuan/kWh). After calculation, this is a 22% drop from the first half of 2016 and a 28% decrease from the second half of 2015.
In fact, offshore wind power has been seen as a costly technology choice over the years compared to onshore wind, photovoltaic, coal and gas. On this basis, the above data shows that the economics of offshore wind power are now rapidly increasing, especially the leveling power of some offshore projects is approaching other mature technologies.
Analysis of the cost reduction of offshore wind power
For the rapid decline in offshore wind power tariffs, Bloomberg New Energy Finance offshore wind power analyst Tom Harries believes: "The use of larger wind turbines, the improvement of Beihai project construction technology, and European project bidding are all reasons for the economic improvement of offshore wind power projects. Among them, the European project bid simplifies the development process by providing the constructed transmission line and the approved wind farm site selection, and makes the bidding more intense."
It is understood that in September this year, Sweden's Great Falls Electric Power Company (Vattenfall) successfully bid for two 350 MW offshore wind power projects in Danish waters, the record price is as low as 60 Euros per MWh (about 0.45 yuan / Kilowatt hours). In July, another public utility company, Dong Energy, won a development contract for a 700 MW Dutch offshore array project at a price of 72.7 euros per megawatt hour.
However, in addition to this, other projects, such as the cost of deep sea projects in the UK, are still relatively high. According to the Bloomberg report, “this also explains why the global average electricity cost has declined rapidly, but it is still higher than the recent Danish. And project data in the Netherlands."
In addition, the Bloomberg report pointed out that each energy technology has a large difference in electricity cost due to different projects. This depends not only on the type of energy technology, but also on the quality of the resources (for wind, solar , geothermal and hydro), the availability and price of raw materials (for coal, gas, nuclear and biomass) ), land costs, local manufacturing costs, imports, and equipment installation costs. For offshore wind power, water depth and offshore distance are important factors influencing costs. In developing countries, whether these technologies are economical or not depends on whether they can receive preferential financing from international financial institutions.
Photovoltaic power generation costs are further reduced due to competition
Of course, offshore wind power is not the only technology that has significantly reduced the cost of electricity this year. The Bloomberg report shows that the global leveling cost of onshore wind power in the second half of 2016 is estimated at $68 per MWh. In the first half of this year, it fell by 16%. In many countries, onshore wind power has been cost competitive compared to coal and electricity.
In contrast, Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates that the cost of electricity for crystalline silicon photovoltaic projects that are close to financing in the second half of 2016 is $100/MWh (0.675 yuan/kWh), but the range of up and down fluctuations is large.
According to the Bloomberg report, in the field of photovoltaic power generation, some high-priced contracts have been created in recent bidding activities. In a recent project in Chile, the transaction price was only $29.1 per megawatt-hour, breaking the record created in Mexico and Dubai earlier this year. However, this is also closely related to the project's own superior conditions. The term of the on-grid price contract, whether the electricity price is adjusted according to inflation, and the project start date may affect the transaction price of the project (these projects may start after one year or more, not the second half of 2016). Taking into account these factors, the bidding results of most photovoltaic power generation are basically in line with the forecast of the cost of electricity for Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Luke Mills, the lead author of the Bloomberg report, commented: "We have observed that the cost per megawatt of renewable energy is declining rapidly across the globe. Looking ahead to 2017, photovoltaic power generation may be particularly attractive because of global PV module manufacturing. Overcapacity may cause manufacturers to further reduce prices for customers."
It is reported that Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates the cost of fossil fuel power generation varies greatly by region. In the second half of 2016, the leveling electricity cost of coal-fired power stations in the Asia-Pacific region was estimated at US$51, US$55, and US$88. The gas leveling cost is $53 in the US, $78 in Europe, and $99 in the Asia Pacific region.
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