The company's development goals are clear. In the future, we will continue to maintain the advantages of the powertrain technology platform. The engine will maintain 300,000 capacity plans in the short term, including heavy-duty engines, construction machinery engines, industrial generators, marine engines, and passenger car engines. At present, heavy truck engines and construction machinery engines are still the major source of profits for the engine business. Passenger car engines are expected to grow faster in the future.
Affected by the increase in crude oil prices and advance truck consumption in the first half of the year due to the implementation of the State 3 standard, the overall decline of the commercial truck industry in the second half of the year has no doubt.
However, sales of heavy trucks in the first five months of 2008 reached 320,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 53%. It is expected that the heavy truck industry will still achieve sales of more than 550,000 units in 2008, an increase of about 15% year-on-year. The company's heavy truck engines can achieve 15% in 2008. The above growth, but in 2009 the company will face the overall decline in the heavy truck industry and the sharp decline in Hongyan matching, and SAIC Fiat Hongyan, Xi'an Cummins put into heavy diesel engine market after the fierce competition. The company signed the "Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement" with legal effect on July 28th with Foton Motor and launched a comprehensive strategic cooperation. At the same time, it clearly stated that it will sign a strategic cooperation plan with one or two heavy-duty truck companies in the near future. . However, mainstream heavy-duty truck companies headed by heavy-duty trucks have recently been vigorously developing vertical integration strategies and increasing engine plant investment and self-support. At present, among the several heavy truck vehicle companies, FAW has liberated Xichai and Dachai matching. Shougang has two engine production bases: Hangfa and Zhangqiu. Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles has Dongfeng Cummins, and plans to introduce Renault dCi11 engine. , North Mercedes-Benz also has the intention to expand its share of the Huachao Deutz engine of Inner Mongolia Yiji Group. Therefore, the company's heavy-duty engine market in 2009 is not optimistic. It is expected that the growth rate will be lower than that of the heavy-duty truck industry.
The company's high-power WD615/618 series and medium- and low-power DEUTZ 226B engines can be used in cranes, excavators, bulldozers, rollers and loaders in construction machinery. At present, the company's products are mainly used in the loader market, and the market share of the 5-ton loader is more than 80%. As a result of the increase in major engineering projects in 2008 and the post-disaster reconstruction, construction machinery will have an unexpected increase this year. At the same time, the decentralized application of downstream engineering machinery has caused the industry to be affected by the cyclical impact, and the future growth has been relatively stable. The overall industry is expected to increase sales by more than 20% in FY09. The company’s construction machinery engine is expected to have an average annual growth rate of around 25%.
In June 2008, the company had sold 20,000 3 engines equipped with Bosch high-pressure common rails. At present, although the country 2 and country 3 engines are all in production, with the further implementation of the State 3 policy, the company will definitely turn its back to the production of the National 3 engine. The company currently claims that it will firmly follow the high-pressure common rail technology route, but at the same time, it is actually carrying out EGR technology reserves. Therefore, it is not ruled out that if the market fully agrees with EGR technology in the short term, the company will also make a corresponding transition.
In the second half of 2008, the company will take full advantage of its technology platform to adjust the structure of the engine's industrial chain. Above 12 liters, the engine extends upwards to 20 liters. Below 10 liters, the engine extends down to 2 liters. At the same time, the company entered the passenger car market in the second half of 2005, focusing on the supporting field of large passenger car engines of 11 meters or more. At present, the company's products have begun to provide supporting services for Yutong, Jinlong and Zhongtong buses. In 2007, the sales volume reached more than 3,000, and it is expected to reach 5,000 in 2008 and 8,000 in 2009.
The company's controlling Shaanxi Zhongqi sold 37,317 vehicles in the first five months of 2008 and 4,456 vehicles in China, which were respectively 43% and 15% higher than the same period of last year. During the same period, the heavy truck and China Card industry growth rate was 53% and 5%. The Shaanxi Heavy Truck heavy truck failed to continue the year-on-year growth of 84% in 2007. As a result, the overall growth rate of the heavy truck industry declined. Large, under the background of high oil prices will also be increasingly impacted by Mercedes-Benz, Mitsubishi, Iveco and other heavy trucks. The future new model of Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck will also adopt the German MAN truck technology. Steyr Technology will gradually fade out of the vision of Shaanxi Auto Heavy Truck. It is expected that the growth rate of Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck in 2008 and 2009 will be equal to the growth rate of the heavy truck industry. In 2008, the sales volume will reach 70,000 units, and in 2009 sales will reach 80,000 units. The monopoly position of the transmission controlled by the company will not change in the short term. It is expected that in 2008 and 2009, the supporting rate of over 90% of the heavy truck market can still be maintained.
The rapid increase in steel prices will cause the overall gross profit margin of the company to decline, among which the impact on the Fast Transmission will be greatest, and it is expected that its gross profit margin will drop by more than 6%. The company's engine and heavy-duty truck business can absorb some of the pressures of rising costs through factors such as internal business potential tapping and product price increase. The gross profit margin is expected to fall within 2%.
Risk Warning: As the current Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck, Fast Transmission, and powertrains for heavy trucks are still the main source of profit for the company, it occupies a share of approximately 80% of net profit, so the performance of the company is highly correlated with the prosperity of the heavy truck industry. high.
It is estimated that the EPS of the company in 2008 will be 4.38 yuan and the EPS in 2009 will be 4.6 yuan.
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