Chinese robotics industry will develop rapidly in the next 30 years

President Xi Jinping said in the speeches of academicians of the two academies that “China will become the largest market for robots, but will our technology and manufacturing capabilities be able to cope with this competition? We must not only raise the level of our robots, but also There are still many new technologies and new areas. We must review the situation, make overall considerations, and pay close attention to planning and solid advancement. It is understood that robots have been vigorously developed in China and that China will be in a high-growth stage in the next 30 years. Capacity 30 trillion yuan. This will be followed by the vigorous development of the smart equipment industry, which may result in a new industrial revolution.

Industry 4.0 and Robotics Applications

The essence of the robotics industry is "application of the market, the cultivation of giants", the giant robotics industry will emerge in the robot market power. Luo Baihui believes that there are three major driving forces for the outbreak of China's robotics industry. The industrial revolution is a perfect time for the manufacturing industry to upgrade. The contradictory space for the huge application demand in the Mainland and the demographic dividend is no longer the geographical advantage. The policy support and industrial layout are people. "Manufacturing upgrade is the fundamental driving force, artificial replacement of robots and economic efficiency are the main driving forces, and policy support is the key catalyst."

A vocabulary from Germany - "Industry 4.0" has recently become the focus of many investors to talk about.

“Industry 4.0 directly connects people, equipment and products in real time, eliminating the need for sales and circulation, which in turn reduces the overall cost of the industry by nearly 40%. Cost reduction means an increase in profit margins. This huge attraction makes Industry 4.0's landscape is infinite. The most prominent feature of Industry 4.0's technical level is the breakthrough in innovation in robotics applications.” Luo Baihui told reporters that in the context of “Industry 4.0”, the application of Chinese industrial robots quietly turned a turning point. According to statistics, in 2013, the sales volume of industrial robots in China reached 37,000 units, an increase of 60% year-on-year, surpassing Japan, and then became the world’s largest robotic country. For a long time, the most widely used industrial robot is the automobile manufacturing industry. Today, robot manufacturers are trying to expand into other fields. The relevant departments have obviously noticed the manufacturing revolution brought about by intelligentization, and the country has started its policy on smart manufacturing. Support continues to increase.

Luo Baihui told reporters that robots are divided into industrial robots and service robots, and service robots are mainly divided into military and civilian applications. In the area of ​​industrial robots, Japan, the United States, and Europe occupy an absolutely dominant position. The service robot industry has just emerged. Countries are almost at the same starting line; in the field of military robots, the United States stands out.

Luo Baihui believes that China's industrial robotics industry will take the lead and it is expected that the industrial cluster market will reach 3 trillion yuan in the next few years; it is estimated that the service robot industry will begin to erupt in 5-10 years, and its scale and development speed may be unmatched by industrial robots. . According to conservative forecasts, the total market for industrial robots is 750 billion yuan, the system integration market is 2,250 billion yuan, the military ground robot is 50 billion yuan, the drone is 80 billion yuan, the home robot is 900 billion yuan, the disability robot is 300 billion yuan, and the public service robot is 1,700 yuan. About 100 million yuan, the service robot market is close to 10 trillion yuan.

Currently, 90% of China's industrial robot market is dependent on imports. Local companies are small in scale, the technological level needs to be increased, and core components rely on imports. This leads to high costs that are not conducive to promotion. Too thin a profit is not conducive to development. Because of the advantages of engineers and home ownership, local companies The advantage lies in application integration and services. “The key to the outbreak of the robotics industry is to reduce the prices of indigenous robots. To lower prices, we must rely on the localization of core components, and secondly rely on industry clusters to form economies of scale and complementarity. Third, rely on the government's fiscal subsidies and support.” Luo Baihui said that the robot is currently announced to be established. The provinces and cities of the industrial park include: Chengdu, Chongqing, Shenzhen, Kunshan, Henan, Wuhu, and Shanghai, with a total of more than 40 parks.

"Machine Substitution" Plan ahead

The difficulty in recruiting workers and recruiting people is an important sign of the disappearance of China’s “demographic dividend”. Under this new circumstance, "substitution by machine" has become a necessary precautionary measure. "The aging of the population is growing, the surplus population of agriculture is decreasing, the driving force of factor scale is weakened, and economic growth will depend more on the quality of human capital and technological progress." "The role of emerging industries, service industries, and small and micro enterprises will become even more prominent. Production miniaturization, intelligence, and specialization will become new features of the industry." Luo Baihui predicts that 10 million unskilled jobs will be replaced by robots in the future. . Before 2033, 45% of the work in the United States will be replaced by robots.

For example, a large number of companies in Zhejiang are conducting "machine substitutions." This strategy began at the Zhejiang Provincial Economic Work Conference that was held at the end of 2012. Xia Baolong, the then governor of Zhejiang Province and the current Secretary of the Zhejiang Provincial Committee, proposed that Zhejiang will accelerate the industrial transformation and upgrading and comprehensively promote “machine substitution”. It is reported that the background of this strategy is that 14 million laborers in Zhejiang at that time faced a large number of problems such as social stability, employment, and social security.

Recruiting difficulties and recruiting people are important signs of the disappearance of China’s “demographic dividend”. In particular, with the 80s and 90s gradually getting onto the work stage, they are not willing to act as the main force for "repetitive labor." Recruitment difficulties have already begun a few years ago, and they have gradually expanded from the eastern coast to the mainland and then to the west, and gradually spread from the very beginning of the field of simple physical labor to a relatively wider scope. In other words, the new labor force is actually gradually decreasing. According to statistics, from 2005 to 2012, the per capita labor compensation of industrial enterprises above designated size in Zhejiang increased from 14,847 yuan/year to 41,370 yuan/year, an average annual increase of 15.8%, with the total amount and growth ranking among the top in the country.

The gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend and the rapid evolution of Industry 4.0 are forcing more and more industries to join the army of automation, thus providing a fertile ground for the rise of the Chinese robotics industry. Great Wall Securities expects that the Chinese robot's downstream application pattern is expected to be transformed from the "T" model for high-end applications only to the "O" model for mid-end customers. Driven by the expansion of the entire industry downstream, the market space for China's smart equipment industry is expected to expand.

“Taking the case of TD Optical, an A-share listed company in Zhejiang Province, the company has significantly reduced the number of employees in its workshops. In its resin synthesis plant, six large-scale resin reaction machines run quietly, but only two staff members are needed in the central control room. With computer operations, the entire workshop has been reduced from the previous shift of 8 people to 2 people, with 48 tons of synthetic resin per day, and the self-supply has been fully realized.” A relevant person in charge of a Zhejiang company told reporters that “machine substitution” saves manpower. Costs and improving product quality have basically become consensus in Zhejiang. “Yongkang's Zhongtai Holding Group introduced 12 sets of fully automated intelligent welding robots. The production line employees were reduced from 120 to 30. The one-time pass rate of products was increased to 99%; Jiaxing Tianzhihua Spray Weaving Co., Ltd. relied on foreign equipment for one year. Reduce the salaries of more than 17 million workers."

According to the arrangements, 36,000 industrial enterprises above designated size in Zhejiang Province will strive to fully complete the modernization of “machine-for-machine” transformation in 2017, and will spend no less than 300 billion yuan each year.

According to Ling Yun, deputy director of the Economic and Information Commission of Zhejiang Province, the essence of "machine substitution" is technology innovation, process innovation, and management innovation with equipment update as the carrier to enhance enterprise market competition and sustainable development. "When 90 became the main force of labor, few people were willing to do physical work. Zhejiang's manufacturing employment is decreasing at a rate of 1 million people per year."

In 2013, Zhejiang Province formally proposed the “555 Machine Substitution” promotion plan, that is, to implement 5000 projects each year in the next five years, invest 500 billion yuan in investment, and promote machine substitution.

According to Ling Yun, the inevitability of “substitution of machinery” is to reduce production labor, improve product quality, increase production efficiency, improve management level, and optimize local employment structure. “The substitution of machines for change out of the development space of equipment manufacturing industry and the promotion of manufacturing methods Change."

From the research report of the Zhejiang Economic and Information Commission, we can see that “machine substitution” helps to significantly reduce front-line employees and optimize the structure of the company's personnel. 61.5% of the company's front-line employees exceeded 10%, of which 16.3% of the companies reduced their first-line employees by more than 30%, and 68.9% of their production costs fell by more than 5%.

The form of “machine substitution” in Zhejiang mainly includes the substitution of machines in some links, the automation of the entire production line, industrial robots for automated production lines, and the networking of machine equipment, ie, “machine networking” and “factory networking”. “The direction of Zhejiang's future transformation and upgrading is the industrial Internet of Things.”

Statistics show that in 2013, through the “machine substitution”, Zhejiang Province reduced 700,000 ordinary laborers. In January-August this year, 600,000 workers were reduced by simple labor. “It is expected to reduce 1 million by the end of this year.” .

The substitution of machines is more important to ensure the quality of products. The increase in quality will bring about more profit growth. In 2013, the profits of industrial enterprises in Zhejiang Province increased by 15.2%. Luo Baihui believes that machine substitution can not only reduce labor costs, but also greatly reduce the error rate. When Chinese manufacturing is not completely transformed into Chinese creation, the wide application of industrial robots helps to consolidate China’s status as a “world factory” and give domestic industries A growth buffer period to compete with other countries in the industrial manufacturing field.

China's largest consumer of robots

In 2014, the sales volume of the Chinese robot market may reach 50,000-70,000 units. In the next five years, the market growth rate is expected to stay above 40% per year. Automation and intelligence are becoming the rational choice for many enterprise production lines, and a large number of industrial robots are beginning to manufacture. The industry's production line is on the debut. Luo Baihui believes that the degree of automation in China's manufacturing industry is still at a relatively low level, which also means that there is huge room for growth in China's industrial robot market. "Currently, the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry structure, the continuous increase in labor costs, and the structural shortage of the labor force are bound to become the driving forces for the development of China's industrial robot industry. The era of the development of China's industrial robot has arrived."

Since 2013, China has become the world's largest consumer of robots. According to the statistics report of the International Robot Federation (IFR), the sales volume of global industrial robots was approximately 180,000 units in the year, of which approximately 37,000 units were sold in China.

"The potential of the blowout of the robotic industry is already visible." Qu Daokui, President of Shenyang Xinsong Robotics Co., Ltd. believes that "smart manufacturing has become an inevitable trend in the development of global manufacturing. The pressure of traditional manufacturing transformation and upgrading is very pressing. Whether it is Europe's 'Industry 4.0' or the United States' 'Next Generation Robot' ', or Japan's 'robot revolution', all indicate that global manufacturing is undergoing a model change."

In the context of Industry 4.0, the industry’s main expectation for the rapid expansion of the robot market lies in the acceleration of automation in many industries in China. Among the traditional Chinese industrial enterprises before this, only the automobile production enterprises have generally applied industrial robots, and some industries such as the textile and garment industry still have to complete some “flexible” processes manually, and industrial robots cannot be replaced. However, there is a signal in the market that the application and development of Chinese robots is being accelerated, and the expansion of the robot industry has become a trend.

“Taking a CNC dispensing robot as an example, the product's maximum effective load is up to 8 kg and the movement radius is 1379 mm. The entire workstation is flexible and accurate, and the gel type is uniform and non-splashing. Through automatic programming or off-line programming, The automatic gluing operation in a complex three-dimensional space can be applied not only to parts such as automobiles, car lights, and vehicle doors, but also to automatic gluing in home appliances and other electronic products,” said the industry insider.

According to statistics, in 2013, the number of robots owned by China's 10,000 workers was 23, and the global average was 58, which was less than 40% of the global average. In the past 10 years, the cost of robotics has been declining at a rate of 5% per annum, while labor costs have increased at a rate of 10% per year, and the former’s price advantage has become more prominent.

The recently held Central Economic Work Conference clearly stated that it is necessary to focus on promoting the traditional industries to move toward the middle and high-end, which provides strong policy support for the development of the robot industry; as China’s demographic dividend gradually disappears, the shortage of young laborers in the future will be one Because of the long-term phenomenon, the improvement of automation in the manufacturing industry will be an inevitable trend. The era of "Industry 4.0" represented by robotics and intelligent manufacturing has come quietly, and demand promotion has become an important logic for future investment opportunities in the robotics automation industry. Luo Baihui said that the demand for industrial robots in China will grow rapidly, with an annual growth rate of more than 40%. By 2017, the market sales volume will reach 150,000 units, and the number of industrial robots will exceed 500,000 units.

Strengthen the top-level design and guide the development of the industry

The entire robot industry chain is mainly divided into three levels, namely the upstream key components, midstream equipment manufacturers and downstream industry applications. However, Chinese enterprises are currently mainly concentrated as system integrators and realize downstream applications. It is reported that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will organize the development of the Chinese robot technology roadmap and the “13th Five-Year Plan” of the robot industry. Through strengthening the top-level design, guiding the development of the industry, and improving the construction of the standard system, organizing the preparation of China's robot industry industry standard system structure chart and standard schedule, increasing the financial support for the robot industry and policy support to support the healthy development of the robot industry. “We will strive to form a relatively complete industrial robot industry system by 2020. The technological innovation capability and international competitiveness of the industrial robot industry and enterprises will be significantly enhanced, and the high-end market share will reach over 45%, basically meeting international construction, national economic and social development. Needs." In Luo Baihui's view, although China's robot market is huge, China still needs improvement in the entire industry chain. The entire robot industry chain is mainly divided into three levels, namely the upstream key components, midstream equipment manufacturers and downstream industry applications. However, Chinese enterprises are currently mainly focused on system integrators to achieve downstream applications, that is, through the purchase of robots from foreign countries, the downstream customers are responsible for the corresponding program design to achieve profits.

The key components of domestic robots have a certain gap with foreign countries in terms of accuracy, cost, etc. In order to produce robots meeting the standards, corresponding key components must be imported, and in the case where mass production cannot be achieved, this will directly cause domestic robots. Machine manufacturing companies have significant disadvantages in terms of product performance and price. Luo Baihui believes that due to the late start of China's robotics industry, even China's largest robotics company has a gap with the international robot giants in terms of technology. At present, most foreign robots imported from the brand are mainly high-end industrial robots with 6 or more axes. They almost monopolize the high-end industries such as manufacturing and welding. The main applications of China's domestic robots are based on handling and loading and unloading robots, and are at the low end of the industry. field. At the same time, the key infrastructure components of China's industrial robots are still dependent on imports. This is somewhat "controlled by people" for the development of China's robotics industry.

For technical problems, it is necessary to give priority to the development of powerful robotics companies, and then to improve the quality of robots through overseas acquisition of mature technologies and companies. In the development of the Chinese robotic industry, it is more important to develop a business than to develop a technology. With regard to the current status of the development of China’s robotics industry, governments at all levels are now even hotter than companies. Now that there are more than 40 robotic industrial parks to be built by local governments, the actual government’s popularity may directly contribute to the blindness of future industries. , Be wary of robots in the future to repeat the plight of the photovoltaic industry overheated.


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Wire Gauge

SWG(mm)

BWG(mm)

Metric(mm)

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4.05

4.19

4.00

9

3.66

3.76

4.00

10

3.25

3.40

3.50

11

2.95

3.05

3.00

12

2.64

2.77

2.80

13

2.34

2.41

2.50

14

2.03

2.11

2.50

15

1.83

1.83

1.80

16

1.63

1.65

1.65

17

1.42

1.47

1.40

18

1.22

1.25

1.20

19

1.02

1.07

1.00

20

0.91

0.84

0.90

21

0.81

0.81

0.80

22

0.71

0.71

0.70

-

-

-

0.40-0.70


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