Swine flu will lose 3 trillion U.S. dollars in GDP and shrink 5%

According to a report published by the World Bank in 2008, if there is an outbreak of flu in the world, then the world will “pay” 3 trillion US dollars. It is understood that the economic losses caused by SARS in the past have exceeded 10 billion U.S. dollars, and that the world has exceeded 30 billion U.S. dollars.

After the outbreak of swine flu, global investors began to throw out their stocks out of fears about the economic situation. Yesterday (April 27th), Asia-Pacific stock markets such as Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore were significantly lower, while China’s A shares also fell again. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.77% to close at 2,405.35 points.

Epidemic worsened investor panic

After the swine flu outbreak, due to further concerns about the economic situation, global investors also began to panic and throw out their shares, which also caused the general decline in global capital markets. Yesterday, Asia-Pacific stock markets such as Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore fell significantly, while China’s A shares also fell again. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.77% to close at 2,405.35 points. Some analysts believe that with the development of the epidemic, investors’ panic will increase, which may continue to drag down the performance of global capital markets.

In fact, apart from tourism and aquaculture, a global flu epidemic will affect many aspects. International economic activities such as commercial activities, cross-border trade and exchanges will all be hit hard under the influence of the epidemic. The prevalence of SARS before this time caused economic losses to China that exceeded 10 billion U.S. dollars. According to estimates of the World Health Organization, the global economic losses caused by SARS have exceeded US$30 billion.

The pharmaceutical industry will receive extra profits from it

However, while global investors are worried, a unique industry may be able to obtain excess profits in this crisis, which is the pharmaceutical industry. Since the control and treatment of the epidemic requires large quantities of vaccines and medicines, it is no doubt that the pharmaceutical industry will profit from it. Companies such as Roche Pharmaceuticals, which manufactures influenza drugs, are now actively preparing to provide WHO with related drugs. Stimulated by this news, a number of listed companies in China involved in the production of vaccines and anti-influenza virus drugs performed strongly yesterday. Several related stocks such as Jinyu Group and Rheinland Biological Co., Ltd. were confined to their daily limit.

Global GDP may shrink by 5%

As one of the sources of the swine flu outbreak, Mexico is now facing a very serious situation. The Mexican Finance Minister Augustin Cardenz said that the outbreak of swine flu will have a serious impact on the Mexican economy, but it is still difficult to determine the impact.

Mexico has always been a famous tourist destination in the world. In particular, the American people love to travel to Mexico on holidays. According to data from the US Department of Commerce, about 5.9 million U.S. citizens flew to Mexico in 2008 alone. At present, the situation in Mexico has become increasingly tense, and the capital, Mexico City, has been the most thorough “Federation City” operation in 25 years. It has closed schools, museums, libraries, and cinemas in the city. The Mexican people are like the general population of the country during the SARS epidemic. Masks. It is understood that the Mexican government currently requires people to stay home. If it is necessary to go out, it is recommended to wear a mask. Under such circumstances, many countries have reminded their residents to avoid or reduce the number of countries that have visited the epidemic. Even if there is no government reminder, passengers will voluntarily cancel the trip to the relevant place. This is undoubtedly a heavy blow to Mexico's tourism industry. Just as during the period of SARS, the direct domestic tourism industry lost as much as 140 billion yuan.

In addition, the global economy is currently in recession, and tourism and air transport are already at a low point. After being affected by the epidemic, some people are worried that this will have a greater impact on the already overwhelmed global economy. According to a report published by the World Bank in 2008, if an influenza outbreak occurs worldwide, then the entire world will “pay” 3 trillion US dollars for this, followed by the gross domestic product of all countries ( Nearly 5% of the sum of GDP is shrinking.

U.S. and Mexican meat prices fell sharply

Although there is currently no evidence that human-to-pig contacts can cause people to infect and spread the swine flu virus, officials also say that eating pork does not cause illness, but people’s psychological fears still directly affect the sales of pork in Latin America. Sales of pork products in Mexico have shown a decline. It is understood that as the second largest market for pork in the United States, the spread of the Mexican epidemic has a direct impact on the price of pork in the United States, and domestic boar prices have now fallen to the lowest level in two months.

Similar situations have occurred in past "mad cow disease" and "bird flu" outbreaks. On March 20, 1996, the British government announced that more than 20 patients with Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the United Kingdom were involved in the infection of mad cow disease, causing world shock. To this end, the United Kingdom slaughtered more than 11 million cows in the mad cow disease epidemic area, causing about 30 billion U.S. dollars in losses, and caused global panic over British beef. At that time, McDonald's, a global fast-food chain that used beef as one of its main raw materials, was affected. After the outbreak of bird flu in Hong Kong in China, it immediately slaughtered hundreds of thousands of live chickens and suspended imports of live chickens from the mainland.

It can be seen that every time an outbreak similar to the outbreak occurs, there will be no small impact on the relevant aquaculture industry. However, the current situation of losses in the US pig industry is still unclear. Everything depends on the development of the swine flu outbreak. But at present, this matter has no effect on China's pig industry. Chen Sheng, the founder of "No. 1 Soil Pig" in China, told reporters that at present, they have not found any changes in the sales of pork or the customer's mentality. "After all, that (swine flu) is something in the Western Hemisphere."

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