[China Agricultural Machinery Industry News] In 2015, fixed assets investment in the machinery industry increased by 9.7% year-on-year to a single digit. Chen Bin, executive vice president of China Machinery Industry Federation, said that the machinery industry has entered a "new normal" of slowing development. 
Machinery industry enters the "new normal" industry adjustment is imperative
Chen Bin summarized the development characteristics of the current machinery industry as "how many are there, there are high and low, there are fast and slow." The differentiation between different industries and different companies in the same industry is obvious. Regarding whether the "13th Five-Year" industry can get out of the predicament, Chen Bin said: "It is difficult to say that it depends on the intensity of reforms and the implementation of policies, as well as the process of marketization." He said that the "13th Five-Year Plan" is the structural adjustment of the machinery industry. In the critical period of transformation and upgrading, industry adjustments must be made.
Chen Bin revealed that the industry association is cooperating with the relevant state departments to study the policy measures for the steady growth, restructuring, upgrading and upgrading of the machinery industry, reducing costs and increasing efficiency, striving to exert strength from both sides of supply and demand, pulling demand and pushing applications for the machinery industry. Development provides a good policy environment and boosts confidence and determination throughout the industry.
In response to the impact of the supply-side reform on the development of the machinery industry, Chen Bin said that filling the short-board is an important part of the supply-side reform. He said that the machinery industry currently needs to find a short board with weak foundations, strengthen the foundation, and fill the short board. It must make breakthroughs in special equipment, especially special equipment for medium products, in order to get rid of the import dependence for many years. situation.
Weak market demand, industry growth rate declines
Chen Bin said that in 2015, the economic growth rate of the machinery industry slowed down, but the main economic indicators still achieved positive growth. Under the market's forced and policy guidance, the pace of structural adjustment accelerated, and the transformation and upgrading efforts increased.
In 2015, the added value of the machinery industry increased by 5.5% year-on-year, lower than the growth rate of 4.5 percentage points in the previous year, and 0.6 percentage points lower than the national average industrial growth rate (6.1%) in the same period. The growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry is lower than the national average industrial growth rate in recent years, highlighting the seriousness of the industry situation. The machinery industry has accumulated a total revenue of 22.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.32% over the previous year. Among the 64 major mechanical products announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, there are only 18 kinds of production growth, accounting for 28.13%, and 46 kinds of production decline, accounting for 71.87%.
The specific analysis shows that large-scale investment products such as metallurgical mining equipment, engineering machinery, conventional power generation equipment, and other mechanical products with serious overcapacity, such as various ordinary machine tools, AC motors, wire and cable, etc., have declined greatly; large horsepower tractors and instruments Outputs of products closely related to consumption, people's livelihood, energy conservation and emission reduction, and industrial upgrading, such as instruments, environmental protection equipment, electric forklifts, wind power equipment, and sporty multi-purpose passenger vehicles (SUVs) in automobiles, have continued to grow. Among them, the output of CNC machine tools was 235,000 units, down 9.53% year-on-year. The output of large tractors was 77,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 33%. The output of power generation equipment was 110 million kilowatts, down 17.2% year-on-year, but the output for more than 10 million kilowatts was maintained for 10 consecutive years. Automobile production and sales were 24,503,300 and 2,459,760, respectively, up 3.25% and 4.68% year-on-year respectively. Both production and sales exceeded 24.5 million, a record high, and ranked seventh in the world for the seventh consecutive year.
In 2015, the growth rate of economic benefits of the machinery industry was lower than that of the main business, and the loss-making enterprises and losses increased. The accumulated total profit for the year was 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.46% over the previous year, and the growth rate dropped 8.15 percentage points from the previous year. The profit from the main business income was 6.96%, down by 0.06 percentage points from the same period of the previous year. The total amount of tax realized in the year was 880.69 billion yuan, an increase of 5.08% over the previous year; the loss of enterprises was 12.82%, an increase of 2.85 percentage points over the previous year; the loss of loss-making enterprises increased by 19.29%.
The foreign trade of the machinery industry showed a downward trend. In 2015, the total import and export volume reached US$666.5 billion, down 8.13% year-on-year. Among them, imports were 277.7 billion U.S. dollars, down 14.06% year-on-year; exports were 388.8 billion U.S. dollars, down 3.36% year-on-year, showing a rare negative growth since the international financial crisis in 2009. The annual trade surplus reached a record high of $111 billion.
In terms of investment in fixed assets, in 2015, the machinery industry completed a total investment of 4.9 trillion yuan in fixed assets, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%. The growth rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than the fixed assets investment of the whole society, 1.6 percentage points higher than the manufacturing industry, and the machinery of the previous year. The growth rate of industry has dropped by 3.02 percentage points, and the growth rate has dropped for four consecutive years.
In terms of market demand, overcapacity of low-end and mid-range products and insufficient market demand have led to a decline in orders for machinery products and low prices. In 2015, the cumulative orders of key enterprises in the machinery industry continued the weak trend of the previous year, and the growth rate further declined. It was still negative growth year-on-year. It accumulated 4.02% year-on-year from January to December. It is expected that the demand will not be strong in the future. One of the important challenges. At the same time, the price index of machinery industry products continued the trend of low level operation in the previous year. By the end of 2015, the cumulative price index of machinery products had been lower than 100% for 48 consecutive months. Among the 142 major mechanical products, the cumulative price index decreased by 103 species, accounting for 72.5%.
Significant industry differentiation in innovation
At the meeting, Chen Bin summarized the development achievements of the machinery industry during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period and analyzed the development characteristics and trends of the industry. He said that the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" is an extraordinary period for the development of the machinery industry. In the past five years, the machinery industry has been moving forward in a complex and difficult environment.
During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, the scale of the machinery industry expanded further, but the growth rate of major indicators continued to decline. In terms of scale, total assets increased from 10.97 trillion yuan in 2010 to 19.27 trillion yuan in 2015, and the growth rate dropped from an average annual growth rate of 23.55% in the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†to an average annual growth rate of 11.91%.
In terms of output, the main business income increased from 13.96 trillion yuan in 2010 to 22.98 trillion yuan in 2015, and the growth rate dropped from an average annual growth rate of 27.9% in the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†to an average annual growth rate of 10.48%.
In terms of efficiency, the total profit increased from 1.17 trillion yuan in 2010 to 1.6 trillion yuan in 2015. The growth rate dropped from an average annual growth rate of more than 30% in the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†to an average annual growth rate of 6.45%.
In foreign trade, total exports increased from US$258.5 billion in 2010 to US$388.8 billion in 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 8.51%; the trade surplus increased from US$3.136 billion in 2010 to US$111 billion in 2015, a 35-fold increase. . He said that with the transition from the mid-to-late stage of industrialization to the middle and late stages, the development of the machinery industry has entered a new period of more gradual growth.
Different from the overall rapid growth during the “10th Five-Year Plan†and “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, after the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the market demand structure has changed. The main sign of change is the intensification of differentiation.
First, products or industries related to people's livelihood and consumption have grown rapidly. Take the main business income and profit growth rate as an example. The products and industries above the industry average include sports multi-purpose vehicles (SUVs), food packaging machinery, agricultural machinery, instrumentation, and environmental protection machinery.
Second, the industry that relies mainly on investment has gradually declined. Taking the main business income and profit growth rate as an example, the industries below the industry average are mainly construction machinery, petrochemical general, heavy mining, and gold cutting machine tools. These industries are typical investment products industries in the machinery industry. The same trend is also seen in the automotive industry as “the consumption sub-sectors rise and the investment category declinesâ€.
Third, the production and sales situation of industries related to intelligence and green is better. The instrumentation industry, which is closely related to automation, information technology and intelligent manufacturing, maintains rapid growth. The situation of UHV transmission and transformation equipment in the electrical industry is obviously better than that of conventional products; the situation of pumped storage units is better than that of conventional hydropower units; the situation of wind power and photovoltaic power generation equipment is better than conventional power generation equipment. The above changes reflect that in the context of China's rapid adjustment of its economic structure, the decline in the proportion of secondary production, and the increase in the proportion of tertiary production, the machinery industry has gradually adapted to changes in the market demand structure, and is gradually shifting from the previous main service investment activities to more Focus on and tap the needs of consumption, people's livelihood and information, energy conservation and emission reduction.
During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China's machinery industry has achieved remarkable results in innovation and development, and the pace of industrial restructuring has accelerated. Against the background of increasing economic downward pressure, the ability of mechanical enterprises to actively adapt to market changes during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period has continued to increase, the endogenous development momentum has continued to increase, and industrial restructuring has continued to advance.
The independent research and development results are frequent, and the independent research and development of equipment has made breakthroughs. Among them, large-scale nuclear power, hydropower, thermal power and wind power equipment, UHV AC-DC and flexible DC power transmission and transformation equipment, key equipment for oil and gas long-distance pipelines, and key equipment for large-scale coal chemical industry have been independently developed. The successful development of the Zhundong coal 350MW supercritical boiler and its application in engineering is of great significance to the economic development of Xinjiang. The results of the localization of the control system are gratifying, including the long-term importation of the DCS control system for the process industry. The domestic DCS system market share has surpassed the foreign products and has the strength to participate in international competition.
The development of the "three basics" field continued to advance. A number of localizations of key infrastructure and core components that have long relied on imports have made progress. The localization level of high-voltage insulation bushings, transformer outlets, cold-rolled silicon steel sheets, large-scale power plant forgings, gas turbine high-temperature blades, large nuclear power static sealing devices, excavator supporting high-pressure valves, bearings, LNG low-temperature high-pressure casting ball valves, etc. are significantly improved.
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