From the actual situation in China, hybrid power is the best choice for the moment, so China should adopt a diversified new energy vehicle technology route led by electric vehicles. Despite the many advantages of electric vehicles, electric vehicles still have a long way to go in key technologies – battery technology and charging facilities. Before the development of electric vehicles matures, we must promote other new energy technologies including hybrid power, which is in line with the original intention of energy conservation and emission reduction.
First, the hybrid car is the current realistic choice
Car oil is getting tighter. China has surpassed the United States to become the world's largest oil importer and consumer. China's foreign oil dependence has exceeded 55%, and this upward trend is still continuing, and oil security risks are highlighted. According to the analysis, within 10 years, China's automobile oil will become more and more tense. In 2010, China was the number of vehicles with 78 million vehicles. Last year, it was more than 92 million vehicles. The future of automobiles is at a stage of rapid development. Globally, the future of the car is high security. According to China's population density and resource endowment, the number of thousands of people in our country should reach the level of Japan and Europe. Japan’s 1,000-person possession is a little more than 600, and Europe is at this level. If we reach this level of thousand people, it will be a very impressive number.
Hybrid is more realistic and more mature. For our country, in the next decade, the energy saving of energy-saving cars or traditional cars will be more crucial to the fuel-saving effect of the entire car. The fuel-saving effect of new energy vehicles should be reflected only ten years later. Under the current technical conditions, pure electric vehicles can not be compared with traditional fuel vehicles, hybrid vehicles dominated by oil and electricity hybrids is the current realistic choice. Although the world is developing pure electric vehicles, there is no real market-based mass production. The world's auto giants, such as GM and Volkswagen, have temporarily stopped their attempts at pure electric technology and turned to a more realistic and mature hybrid after spending a lot of money. According to our current grasp of new energy vehicles, from the perspective of its cost, life and charging times, it may be that after 2020, new energy vehicles can be truly mass-produced. China plans to produce and sell 500,000 new energy vehicles by 2015, but the current fuel economy depends on traditional cars to save fuel, because the best fuel-saving effect is hybrid.
Hybrid vehicles are currently the main energy-saving models. It is not so much a hybrid, it is better to say that it is the main force of energy-saving cars or the main models of electric vehicles is more accurate. This "transition period" of hybrid power is like the early stage of socialism, and it is a long period of time that needs to be slowly explored. Because the real depletion of oil is at least a few decades later, hybrids have the foundation of its existence when there is oil. At the same time, pure electric power can only be used within a small range of government subsidies and support. In the case that oil and pure electric power do not reach a very ideal level, hybrid power is the main type of electric vehicles and energy-saving cars.
Second, the development of new energy vehicles can not exceed the hybrid vehicle
There are many bottlenecks in pure electric vehicles. China's development of pure electric vehicles, there are currently the core technology can not break through, the battery mileage and service life is not long, the vehicle price is generally high, the supporting infrastructure is imperfect and other real problems, the industrialization of several major bottlenecks is very prominent. First, the infrastructure is not perfect. For example, the construction cost of charging piles is as high as several million yuan, which is three to five times that of the same reserves. Second, the technical standards are not uniform. China does not establish a unified national standard in the key technologies of new energy vehicles, and lacks the role of regulation, guidance, and demonstration. The industry enterprises are hard-pressed, each fights, the standards are chaotic, and they are at a loss. For example, some pure electric vehicles use "rechargeable" and some use "replaceable". "Rechargeable" pure electric vehicles are difficult to adjust. The manufacturers not only have different battery sizes, but also have different charging interfaces. The technical standards are not uniform. Another problem is that if electric vehicles are mass-produced, the disposal of these used batteries will inevitably become a new environmental problem in a few years.
In addition, the infrastructure construction of pure electric vehicles also needs support from the national grid and related energy departments. However, when the State Grid Corporation proposed a plan to build an electric vehicle charging station in 27 cities across the country, industry experts also expressed concern that due to the lack of national standards, the actual application effect of the charging station will be greatly reduced, which may cause a lot of The electric vehicles developed by the company cannot enter the charging stations of the two major power grids for charging.
Developmental mixing can accumulate experience. Although the hybrid technology and the stability and stability of hybrid vehicles in Japan, especially in Japan, have been quite high, and large-scale production has been realized, it is obviously more desirable in China to be able to “straight through†pure electric vehicles and achieve leapfrogging. In the high-end areas such as new energy vehicles, the experience of key technologies such as power batteries, DC motors, and battery management systems has been skipped, and China’s industrial base and supporting capabilities have been ignored, and the actual and realistic conditions have been removed. New energy vehicles have flourished around the world. The international automotive industry, such as Japan's Toyota and US General Motors, has entered the Chinese market, with more than 95% of hybrid electric vehicles. This is the biggest alarm for China's new energy automobile industry. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, if we can't use the mature technology to promote the development of the hybrid vehicle industry, rapidly form the industrial scale and increase the experience accumulation, we will lose the new energy. Development opportunities in the automotive industry.
Developing hybrids can accumulate technology. The development of new energy vehicles has become an irreversible trend, and in the current Chinese market, hybrid technology is the best choice for the development of new energy vehicles. Hybrid is not an isolated technology, but a carrier and bridge for the development of other new energy technologies. For example, the new energy vehicle developed by Toyota is continuing to extend beyond the mature technology of the original hybrid electric vehicle HEV. Whether it is an external plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) or a pure electric vehicle (EV) or a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (FCHEV), it can be realized by evolving on the basis of a hybrid vehicle. In this way, by developing the battery accumulated by HEV, the core technology such as the motor becomes the basic technology of the new energy vehicle.
Hybrid power will exist for a long time. On the development path of new energy vehicles, hybrid vehicles, as the most energy-efficient new energy sources, should not be excluded from the new energy industry planning. In the country's planning for the new energy industry, hybrid power will not and should not be excluded. Hybrid power is the most industrialized condition. It is neither a transitional strategy nor abandoning. As long as the traditional car exists for one day, various The form of hybrid technology is a good way for traditional vehicles to achieve energy saving and emission reduction, and will be more and more widely used. Electricity-driven pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will definitely receive more attention in the "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan", "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan" will not Hybrids should be rejected. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, various hybrid technologies will be universally applied, which is not in contradiction with the development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles.
Third, the government should strongly support hybrid power
Policies must rationally guide the industry. The development of China's new energy automobile industry must follow the laws of scientific development, and it must be gradual and gradual, and cannot be accomplished overnight. China has carried out research on new energy vehicles, especially power battery research. It has more than 20 years of history and has accumulated strong technology. The hybrid electric vehicle technology has been basically mature. We must make full use of the mature technology formed over the years to develop hybrid vehicles. industry. National policies should rationally guide the entire industry, otherwise it will lead to impetuous performance of domestic enterprises, blindly spreading the stalls, causing overcapacity, corporate losses, making the cornerstone of the entire industry in jeopardy.
The government's support for the hybrid is weak. It should be said that after ten years of research, we have the ability to enter the market and follow the world's advanced level. But we can't have this foundation. We can say that China's electric vehicle research has reached the world's advanced level, and it can "turn over the road" in electric vehicles. According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China produced more than 8,000 electric vehicles in 2011, of which more than 5,600 were pure power and more than 2,700 were hybrid. The production and sales of pure electric vehicles are twice as large as those of hybrid vehicles. Why is this situation? The government’s strong subsidies are the main reason. Although the government’s “Ten Cities and Thousand Vehicles†project supports both hybrid and pure electric, it is mainly It is for pure electric, but the support for hybrid is very weak.
Establish a support policy with a fuel economy as the main indicator. If China's new energy vehicles want to accumulate in promotion, increase in accumulation, and finally achieve the strategic goal of pure electric power, this requires the government to attach great importance to and guide and give positive financial support. On the one hand, it is necessary to establish a financial support policy with a fuel economy as the main indicator. For example, according to the current policy, pure electric vehicles support a fuel economy rate of 100% and financial support of 60,000; then hybrid vehicles have a fuel economy rate of 50% and financial support of 30,000 yuan. And so on. We believe that through the correct guidance of national policies, we will promote the common development of hybrid power and pure electric power and create a new situation in the development of new energy vehicles in China.
Conclusion: In the strategy of developing new energy vehicles, China hopes that hybrid electric vehicles will compete fairly. Energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation is an urgent task. Hybrid vehicles are the key to realizing the vision of environmental protection. Now it is time to vigorously develop hybrid vehicles. The future policy should further support and subsidize hybrid vehicles.
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