The IEA stated that the world’s primary energy demand is growing at an average annual rate of 1.6%. It is estimated that by 2030, fossil energy will account for 83% of the increase, and global energy consumption will reach 16.3 billion tons of oil equivalent per year, which is 5.5 billion tons of oil equivalent higher than it is now. Oil is still the most important fuel, and it is expected to have a demand of 92 million barrels per day in 2010 and 115 million barrels per day in 2030.
According to forecast, driven by the electric power industry, natural gas demand will grow faster and its demand will surpass coal in 2015. The share of nuclear power will be significantly reduced, and the share of hydraulic power will remain unchanged. The share of biomass energy declines slightly. While other renewable energy sources such as geothermal energy, solar energy, and wind energy will grow faster than any other energy source, they will still only account for 2% of primary energy demand by 2030.
The IEA pointed out that oil and natural gas resources from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region will play a key role in meeting the growth of world energy demand. In 2004, MENA accounted for 35% of the global oil production share, ie 29 million barrels per day. By 2030, its share will increase to 44%, ie 50 million barrels per day. Only Saudi Arabia’s production is expected to exceed 18 million barrels per day by 2030.
According to the above analysis, from 2004 to 2030, the net oil export volume in the region will increase from 22 million barrels/day to 39 million barrels/day. With the start of new production and refining plants, oil prices will reach 35 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2010, and then will slowly increase to 370 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2020 and 39 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2030, compared to the IEA World Energy Outlook (2004). ) The forecast is higher by $10/barrel.
MENA will also become the world's leading natural gas exporting region, among which natural gas exported to Europe and the United States (mainly LNG) will account for a large part. The average annual growth rate of MENA natural gas production will be 4.3%. Production will increase from 385 billion cubic meters in 2003 to 600 billion cubic meters in 2010 and 211 billion cubic meters in 2030. Its net natural gas exports will increase from 97 billion cubic meters in 2003 to 444 billion cubic meters.
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