The standards are getting more and more stringent. The car standards are hopeless. The EU will accelerate the electrification with the strictest regulations.

A few days ago, the European Commission announced that it plans to reduce the carbon emissions of new cars in the European Union by 30% from 2021 to 2030. The EU’s current regulations on new vehicle emissions will expire in 2021. According to this regulation, the new vehicle’s carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced to 95 grams per kilometer; the United States’ carbon dioxide emissions by 2025 must be reduced to 97 grams per kilometer; Japan must To 122 grams, China will have to fall to 117 grams by 2020. In other words, the EU's emissions regulations in 2021 are already the most stringent in the world, and the 2030 emission target is even more stringent.

In addition, the European Commission set a mid-term goal for the emission target for 2030, which is to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions from new EU vehicles by 2025 to 15% compared to 2021, in order to urge automakers to take action as soon as possible. After the target was released, all major car companies complained that they were too harsh. "It will be difficult to meet the targets in 2021, let alone the 2030 goal." In addition, the EU also plans to introduce a carbon credit system to encourage cars. Enterprises increase investment in R&D of electric vehicles.

Tightening emission regulations 2030 is the decisive year

The current EU carbon emissions regulations for new vehicles require that the total carbon dioxide emissions of the EU's passenger vehicles reach 95 g/km by 2021. According to the emission reduction target of 2030, major automobile enterprises need to reduce by an average of another 30% on the basis of 95 g of carbon dioxide emissions, that is, 66.5 g/km. No wonder, this is the most stringent global carbon dioxide reduction target. Prior to this, the European Commission issued regulations on CO2 emission reduction in 2008, which stipulated that the new vehicle's CO2 emissions will be reduced to 130 g/km by 2015; in 2015, the EU will issue new emission reduction regulations, which will stipulate that the new vehicle's CO2 emissions will be reduced to 95 g by 2021. Kilometers. It can be seen that the EU is continuously tightening the new car carbon dioxide emission reduction targets.

According to the European Union’s standards, if the car’s CO2 emission exceeds the upper limit, a penalty of 95 euros will be imposed for every car sold for more than 1 gram per standard. In 2016, the new car's CO2 emissions will be 118 g/km. The difficulty of achieving the target of 95 g/km in 2021 is not small. In order to strive for compliance and avoid fines, major auto makers have to increase their R&D for plug-in hybrid and pure-electric vehicles, and have formulated ambitious new energy vehicle development plans.

Why does the EU set such an ambitious 2030 emission reduction target? In fact, reducing carbon dioxide emissions from motor vehicle exhaust is an important part of the EU’s efforts to increase environmental protection and combat global warming. At the end of 2015, nearly 200 parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change agreed unanimously in France to adopt the new Global Climate Change Agreement. This is the landmark Paris Agreement. According to the Paris Agreement, the EU plans to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by at least 40% by 1990 compared with 1990.

In order to achieve this goal, Europe is setting off a technological revolution on automotive power. Many countries have begun to study the internal combustion engine withdrawing schedule. They plan to accelerate the transition to alternative energy sources.

Emission reduction pressure mountain car enterprises complained

After the European Commission announced the latest emission reduction targets, the entire European automotive industry has complained. The European Automobile Manufacturers Association immediately issued a statement saying that by 2030, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by another 30% is "very challenging." The European Automobile Manufacturers Association believes that the target of reducing the carbon dioxide emissions of new cars by 20% will be relatively realistic. “Although car companies will still pay high costs for this purpose.”

The German Automobile Industry Federation VDA also pointed out that the latest EU set emission reduction targets are difficult to achieve. If it is enforced, it will put European automakers at a disadvantage in the global market. "From today's point of view, whether this goal can be achieved is full of uncertainty." VDA believes that this will depend to a large extent on the future development of the new energy vehicle market and the construction of infrastructure such as charging stations. The German Foreign Minister Gabriel also expressed to the European Commission that he is opposed to setting mandatory standards for new vehicle exhaust emissions by 2025, as this will be at the expense of employment and economic growth.

For the EU's ambitious emission reduction targets, major auto makers also feel "stressed." BMW CEO Krueger said that according to the current market development situation, it is very difficult for auto companies to meet the EU's goal of reducing emissions. He said: "The EU's proposal is too radical. If car companies cannot sell enough low-emission or zero-emission vehicles, we will not even achieve the target of 95 g/km CO2 emissions in 2021." It is reported that this Proposals need the approval of EU governments and the European Parliament. This process usually takes more than a year.

Tail gas measurement will reduce emissions in the end

In addition to setting more stringent emission reduction targets, the European Union has also innovated the emission testing mechanism. It has solved the problem that there is a small gap between the test data of auto exhaust gas labs and the real road test data, and has put the emission reductions in place. From September 1 this year, two completely new automotive exhaust emission regulations have come into effect within the European Union. The new cars of car enterprises must pass the real road test procedure in order to pass the registration approval within the EU.

The global uniform light vehicle emission test protocol WLTP and the real driving emissions test RDE, these two tests will replace the EU's original NEDC test. WLTP is a light vehicle test procedure developed by the United Nations. It is jointly developed by experts from Japan, the United States, and Europe. The test procedure is divided into cycles under the analysis of actual driving conditions data collected all over the world. WLTP is a bench test and is also combined with RDE testing. The RDE test uses a PEMS (portable emission monitoring system) device as a test tool to measure the emission indicators of a vehicle as it travels on the road. As a result, car manufacturers can no longer use the laboratory data to “polished” and the vehicle exhaust emissions data become more realistic and transparent, but it is even more difficult for car companies to achieve emission reduction targets.

JATO Dynamics, an analyst survey agency, pointed out that more stringent emission testing procedures have made it even more difficult for automakers to meet emission standards, and have had major and far-reaching effects on the entire European auto market. Although WLTP test data can be applied to vehicle certification, the European Commission now combines it with RDE real drive test data. JATO Dynamics analyst Yarisander Bowerz said: “Automakers expect that after adopting new testing and certification processes, average vehicle CO2 emissions will increase by 3% on the original basis. Their forecasts are somewhat optimistic. Through our experiments, after using the RDE test, the carbon dioxide emissions of a vehicle model are far more than the vehicle's previous NEDC test results.”

In addition, the use of real road test procedures will further increase the registration fees and purchase tax of EU vehicles. At present, the EU 10 countries including France, Spain, Denmark, and the Netherlands are all based on the carbon dioxide emission level of vehicles to determine the registration fee. After the implementation of the new emission testing program, consumers will face higher taxes or fees. "The increase in vehicle carbon dioxide emissions by 3 grams per kilometer means that the vehicle registration tax will increase by 600 million euros, and this part of the cost is very likely to eventually be paid by consumers."

Brewing carbon credits in electric speedup

Skoda CEO Mebona pointed out that the latest EU emission reduction targets will prompt the brand to accelerate the upgrading of existing vehicle models. "This means that we need to further adjust the product mix." Mebona said, "Skoda may have to need to further expand the supply of energy-saving cars." Although the EU proposal to car manufacturers feel a headache, but after the public "emission gate" scandal The public, angry about the exhaust emissions of vehicles, has exerted tremendous pressure on EU regulators. Some European countries and city governments are considering the phase-out of traditional fuel vehicles in the next 20 years.

In addition, in order to achieve the goal of reducing emissions, the EU also plans to adopt a number of measures to promote the rapid development of the electric vehicle market. It is reported that the European Commission plans to allocate 800 million euros to support the construction of electric vehicle charging stations and an additional 200 million euros for power battery R&D. The European Commission also plans to introduce a carbon credit system for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles. If car companies’ zero-emissions and low-emission vehicles accumulate more carbon credits than benchmarks set by regulators, they will allow automakers to offset carbon dioxide emissions from their fuel vehicles.

Recently, the EU Commissioner for Climate and Energy Miguel Canetet said in an interview in Brussels: “It is an important part of our work to urge car companies to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles. At present, all countries in the world have set up a new energy vehicle R&D. Competition, and Europe has fallen behind.” He pointed out that China has already issued a “double-integration” policy, and India is also interested in fully realizing vehicle electrification by 2030, and Europe really needs “acceleration” in this respect.