At a recent seminar, Rao Da, general secretary of the passenger car association, made a calm forecast for the auto market in 2011. He believes that the 2011 production and sales volume will be 17.7 million units, an increase of 2.9%. There will be negative growth in production and sales, and the negative growth in the production and sales of commercial vehicles will continue from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year.
The basis for this forecast is that the domestic macro economy will slow down from the second half of this year, which will impose constraints on the growth of the auto market; policies that stimulate automobile sales will expire at the end of the year and will be withdrawn next year; the cascade effect of high growth. It is raising the cardinal number, making it difficult to re-emerge high growth (some people think that the stimulus is overdraft market purchasing power); now high inventory is a heavy burden for the growth of the auto industry next year. In addition, the auto market trend this year is high and low, and the ultra-high growth in the first quarter of this year is actually a high-growth “dividend†in the previous year. This dividend has been used up. The slowdown in market growth will inevitably make the competition more fierce. As the joint ventures continue to launch "independent brands", the pressure on local independent brands will increase.
High growth has brought about a rapid increase in traffic congestion in major cities. On the 17th of this month, the big traffic jams in Beijing, and the increasingly loud calls for restrictions on vehicles and lines, are obviously detrimental to the growth of the auto market.
Another issue that requires the Chinese auto industry to think calmly is the new energy vehicle. Hiroaki Ito, president of Honda Technology Co., Ltd., once said: "Because of technical and other issues, electric vehicles will be difficult to popularize in the next 20 years." It seems that after thirty to forty years, the battery performance has an essential change and increase, it may be universal. In other words, electric vehicles are still an industry that needs to be raised in recent years, not an industry that makes money.
Comrade Hu Jintao pointed out: “We should take a long-term perspective and promote the G20 to shift from coordinated stimulus to coordinated growth, from short-term emergency response to long-term governance, and from passive to active planning.†The Chinese government is focusing on accelerating the transformation of economic development methods and persisting in expanding domestic Demand, especially consumer demand, promotes the transformation of economic growth from a reliance on investment and exports to a reliance on consumption, investment, and export coordination. The automobile industry is the beneficiary of the policy of stimulating economic growth. The next step should be to contribute to changing the growth mode and expanding domestic demand, especially for self-owned brand companies.
As the policy ebbs and the market falls, the growth of automobile production and sales will be very difficult next year, and we should no longer expect the government to increase policy efforts. We should emphasize our own efforts, such as the development of second and third tier markets, accelerating the deployment of energy-efficient cars, and strengthening services. Improve quality and more.
The Automobile Circulation Association has been promoting the implementation of two measures. One is to develop auto finance; the other is to develop the used car market. The high bad-debt ratio of auto consumption credit from 2003 to 2004 made most banks irrelevant to auto finance, but auto finance should have been mainly financed by the auto group’s financial companies because it was not only borrowing money but also having heavy after-sales services. Which small white-collar workers in the bank will repair the car? China’s auto credit vehicle purchase ratio is only 7%, compared with 10 times that of Europe and the United States. In the past two years, Mercedes-Benz BMW's sales are booming. One of the reasons is that the auto financing of the two companies is very flexible and effective. The used car market mainly needs policy promotion, such as assessing problems, irrational taxes, and trust issues, which need the government to solve them. The sales volume of used cars in Japan is 1.5 times that of new cars, the United States is 1:3, and the United Kingdom is more than 4 times. China's used car sales were about 4 million last year, only 1/3 of new car sales. This is another huge space for growth.
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